Alternative data can improve economic forecasts
Alternative data nowcasting of economic activity can improve forecasts and lead to better investment decisions, capital allocation and risk management.
Some months ago we commented on a social media post related to Italian regional economic growth projections by Oxford Economics, as illustrated.
While economic growth has been meaningfully stronger in the north-eastern regions (dark green areas) over the past 5-10 years; e.g. over the past 8 years regional GDP has averaged ca +1.4% pa in the north-eastern regions in aggregate compared to ca +1% pa in the rest of the country (excl. north-east) and has also been stronger on a 5-year basis by a margin of ca +0.2% pa, we suggested that economic activity in those exact regions is likely decelerating most markedly.
We based our comments on alternative data nowcasting based on road transport activity on major road distribution networks. Kania has developed algorithms to perform large-scale data processing and ongoing monitoring of logistics activity at any global location. This dataset provides unique insights into both logistics activity across markets, industrial clusters, asset locations etc., drivers and leading indicators of demand for logistics space and ultimately potential rental growth and asset values. By understanding logistics activity and dynamics around their assets, investors are able to make better informed data-driven investment and asset management decisions to optimise investment outcomes.
Given the crucial role logistics plays in the overall economy and as a leading indicator of general economic activity, the datasets can provide early signals and information regarding the state of activity, typically reflected in aggregate GDP. Given our data processing is geolocation based and handles large-scale information processing, any area can be analysed and monitored on an ongoing basis providing timely intelligence.
As the social media reply above indicates, our data suggested that the north-eastern regions were likely slowing down markedly both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the country as road transport activity/logistics activity had been declining for some time compared to it’s longer-term (5-year) structural levels.
Recently released data from Instituto Nazionale di Statistica istat December 2025 now including 2024 regional figures shows that indeed economic activity in north-eastern regions has fallen from it’s ca +1.4% long-term rate to ca +0.6% a net change of -0.8%, compared to the rest of the country reducing from ca +1% long-term rate to ca +0.7% a net change of -0.3%. This confirms our expectations that growth in the north-eastern regions has slowed down the most both in absolute and relative terms.
Absolute growth by region
Change in growth rate by region
Sourse: istat regional accounts edition December 2025
Alternative data can improve economic forecasts, provide more timely and geolocation specific intelligence and improve evaluation and identification of crucial turning points in economic activity.
For information about the data set, any geographic location of interest to your research, economic forecasts or investments, please contact info@kaniaadvisors.com